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Post by raphael on Feb 5, 2011 10:39:32 GMT -5
Wow I didn't know how drastic the downturn was around here. In 07 the value of building permits were around $573 million and in 10 they dropped all the way down to around $79 million. Some of the local builders are saying we've hit the bottom and the inventories have dropped and this year will be better. Yay! ;D
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Post by Fredo on Feb 6, 2011 14:45:18 GMT -5
Well, that guy is either a moron or he's counting apartment units in his numbers. The new housing market around here is completely dead and will remain so for at least two more years and maybe as many as four. Official unsold inventory might be down a bit, but I know for a fact that there are thousands upon thousands more homes that are not on the market for various reasons.
Either banks are holding them as inventory until prices recover, or they're slow rolling the foreclosure process because they don't need more inventory. Builders are holding houses as rentals rather than sell at a loss. People who need to move are holding their houses as rentals.AND it's still damn near impossible to get a mortgage unless you have 20+% down and 750+ credit and a long, stable work history and you're doing less than 75%LTV based upon the really stingy appraisals that we're seeing these days.
The sellers can't sell and the buyers can't buy. It's brutal for the new construction guys.
What a dolt. The first time home buyer tax credit did for housing what cash for clunkers did for car sales. It bought the market ahead at an unnaturally rapid rate and then sent it crashing back down, all at tremendous cost to the taxpayer.
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Post by manlyman on Feb 7, 2011 11:53:57 GMT -5
There seems to be a glut of new homes in this area. Everytime I turn around, there is another new subdivision going up while there are 10 subdivisions in the same area that have unfinished/unoccupied homes and empty lots. Who is buying (or would buy if the economy allowed) these $250,000 and up homes? Has there been an influx of new people in this area? And who is buying all these million dollar condos downtown by the river?
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Post by raphael on Feb 7, 2011 11:57:04 GMT -5
There seems to be a glut of new homes in this area. Everytime I turn around, there is another new subdivision going up while there are 10 subdivisions in the same area that have unfinished/unoccupied homes and empty lots. Who is buying (or would buy if the economy allowed) these $250,000 and up homes? Has there been an influx of new people in this area? And who is buying all these million dollar condos downtown by the river? Maybe their counting on Volkswagen. Maybe it will be all those kids coming out of school with their large student debts.
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Post by Fredo on Feb 7, 2011 12:59:15 GMT -5
There seems to be a glut of new homes in this area. Everytime I turn around, there is another new subdivision going up while there are 10 subdivisions in the same area that have unfinished/unoccupied homes and empty lots. Who is buying (or would buy if the economy allowed) these $250,000 and up homes? Has there been an influx of new people in this area? And who is buying all these million dollar condos downtown by the river? We're still seeing some custom building and renovation is starting to come back, albeit very slowly. I really think that the biggest impediment to a real housing recovery is going to be the time that it takes for buyers to actually save some money for a down payment and rehab their credit a bit. If it's allowed to progress that way, then we'll see a solid recovery built upon good fundamentals. In the end, that would be good for everyone involved but I don't know what my guys are going to do until that happens. AS for the condos downtown, I know a couple of people who live in them and it seems like mostly retired/semi retired folks who've done pretty well but decided that they've had enough of mowing grass.
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Post by CoffeeShooter on Feb 7, 2011 14:34:21 GMT -5
What about the commercial side of the real estate world? I'd like to see numbers on those sales.
Also, Fredo, do you know anything about loans on commercial property? I've never faced that demon.
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Post by Fredo on Feb 7, 2011 18:51:17 GMT -5
What about the commercial side of the real estate world? I'd like to see numbers on those sales. Also, Fredo, do you know anything about loans on commercial property? I've never faced that demon. Sorry. Commercial stuff is out of my realm of experience.
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Post by raphael on Feb 8, 2011 10:51:19 GMT -5
Holy moly! Check out this national chart of the % of people who are underwater........... www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2011-02-04-under-water-chart_N.htmI know the top 17% are east/coast west coast ala California/Las Vegas or Florida. No more piggy banks for those people in those areas. In fact watch for housing prices in those areas to continue to plummet.
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Post by manlyman on Feb 8, 2011 11:02:04 GMT -5
My retirement home on the Gulf coast is getting closer & closer to becoming reality! BWAHAHAHAHA!
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Post by Fredo on Feb 8, 2011 11:08:34 GMT -5
I think this is the key piece of information here and it is consistent with what I've been reading elsewhere. Most of the serious trouble in housing is concentrated in 3-4 markets. The rest of the country is pretty flat.
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Post by Fredo on Feb 9, 2011 9:27:27 GMT -5
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Post by manlyman on Feb 9, 2011 9:39:38 GMT -5
In my little subdivision there are 3 or 4 abandoned houses.
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Post by raphael on Feb 9, 2011 11:37:15 GMT -5
In my little subdivision there are 3 or 4 abandoned houses. I've got several in mine and several that were and are up for sale that wouldn't sell. I know one that sold for $53k that was a fixer upper. I just saw a video that was about homeowners in Merced, California many are just barely holding on, many have walked, they showed a guy buy a house that was valued in the 400ks buy it for 140k and he said he thinks he won the lottery. I many areas in California housing prices have fell drastically and are still falling. I talked to somebody that came from LA one time and they told me my 100k house in that market would go between 400k to 600k. That was a decade or so ago.
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Post by emanon on Feb 9, 2011 22:52:23 GMT -5
I paid $220k for my house in CA. Sold it for $360k in 2.5 years. After I left, it sold for about $480k. Now, it would probably sell for about $200-250k.
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Post by manlyman on Feb 10, 2011 15:23:01 GMT -5
I paid $220k for my house in CA. Sold it for $360k in 2.5 years. After I left, it sold for about $480k. Now, it would probably sell for about $200-250k. The circle completes itself!
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